U.S.: 58 cts-62 cts/lb del, July contracts EUROPE: €700-€800/m.t. fob N WE, spot ASIA: $680-$700/m.t. c&f Southeast Asia, spot
END USES*
2008 total: 11.075 million m.t.
Africa
Iran
Saudi Arabia
20
180
155
Global acetic acid demand is expected to grow at roughly 3.8%/year through 2013, down from 4.5%/year from the last five years, due to declines in economic activity and select end uses, says Mike Devanney, analyst with SRI Consulting (SRIC; Menlo Park, CA).
Growth in vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), the largest end market for acetic acid, has slowed this year due to the weak U.S. housing market, however, it is expected to pick up and “see more normal expansion levels of approximately 4%/year in 2009 as the economy rebounds,” says acetic acid producer Celanese.
Global growth will be driven by Asia, particularly China, which will represent more than 80% of total growth through 2012, SRIC says. Demand in China will rise at nearly 8%/year, “more than doubling world growth,” Devanney says. New plants in China will increase the region’s capacity by 50%, representing nearly 75% of announced world capacity additions during the next five years, he says.
New plants coming onstream in China will almost double the region’s capacity by 2011, however, a new world-scale acetic acid facility with capacity of 550,000 m.t./year will be required each year to meet the demand growth beginning in 2012-13, Celanese says. New projects include BP’s signing of a memorandum of understanding with Sinopec this year to invest jointly in a 650,000-m.t./ year acetic acid plant at Chongqing, China, which is expected onstream in 2011 (CW, Jan. 28, p. 22).
Meanwhile, demand in India will increase at more than 8%/year, producers say. Demand in the mature American and European markets will rise at GDP and higher, they say.
Capacity will not increase in any other region through 2011, producers say. Smaller sites “will be offset by the closure of some higher cost facilities that are based on crude oil as a feedstock and are becoming uneconomical given the run up in crude pricing,” Celanese says.
Others 16%
Vinyl acetate
monomers
33%
Acetic anhydride
14%
Acetate
Terephthalic esters 15%
anhydride 22%
Source: SRI Consulting (Menlo Park, CA); CW research.
tion, conversion of ethyl alcohol, and coal-based synthesis gas. The most common route is low-pressure carbonylation of methanol.
(in thousands of m.t./year)
U.S. Celanese Clear Lake, TX Narrows, VA Calvert City, K Y Pasadena, TX LyondellBasell La Porte, TX Sterling Chemicals Texas City, TX1 Babcock & Brown Pampa, TX Eastman Chemical Kingsport, TN DuPont La Porte, TX Primester2 Kingsport, TN Others
Mexico
11,200
400 55 36
454
453
290
255
98
96 158
20
112
France Celanese Pardies
Germany Wacker-Chemie Burghausen BASF Ludwigshafen
U.K.
BP Chemicals
Hull
440
100
50
There are several routes to acetic acid production, including methanol carbonylation, acetaldehyde oxidation, butane/naphtha oxida-
570
430
China
BP-YPC Acetyls Co. 3
Chongqing 350 Nanjing4 500 Jiangsu Sopo
Zhenjiang 700 Celanese
Nanjing 600 Yangtze River Acetyls
Chongqing 350 Shanghai Wujing Chemical
Shanghai 250
Petrochina Jilin Chemical Industry
Jilin 210
Daqing Oil Field
Daqing 200 Yankuang Cathay Coal Chemicals Zaozhuang 200
Others 877
India
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers
Gujarat 100
Others 232
Indonesia 34
Japan
Kyodo Sakusan
Himeji 408 Kuraray
Nakajo 38 Okayama 131 Showa Denko
Tsurusaki5 130 Others 182
South Korea
Samsung BP Chemicals6
Ulsan 420 DC Chemical
Kunsan 24
Malaysia
BP Petronas Acetyls7
Kerteh 400
Singapore
Celanese Acetyls Singapore
Pulau Sakra 600
Others 54
Taiwan
Formosa BP Chemicals
Mailiao8 300 Chang Chun Petrochemical
Mailiao 150
China Petrochemical Development
Ta Sheh 130 1) BP has the right to purchase all of the acetic acid produced at this plant until July 31, 2016. 2) 50-50 joint venture of Eastman Chemical and Rhodia. 3) JV between BP and Sinopec. 4) Start up expected for 2009. 5) Owned 54% by Daicel Chemical, 18% by Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, 15% by Denki Kagaku Kogyo (Tokyo), 8% by Kyowa Hakko Kogyo ( Tokyo), and 5% by Chisso. 6) 51-49 jv bet ween BP and Samsung General Chemicals. 7) 70-30 jv between BP and Petronas. 8) 50-50 jv of BP and Formosa. Sources: SRI Consulting (Menlo Park, CA); C W research.
References:
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